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instability18John M. Nomikos and A. Th. Symeonides
(Authors)

Copyright: International Journal of Intelligence and Counter-Intelligence, 31: 1–17, 2018
Copyright © Taylor & Francis Group, USA.

The tortuous history of the Balkans as a hotbed of repeated crises has been told enough times to defeat the necessity of repeating it here in any detail. Our approach, therefore, is to try to analyze the current resurgence of potential Balkan war against the backdrop of recent and more distant political and conflict history -- and briefly answer some questions, such as the following, which may give the impetus for developing a rational, accurate and, above all, predictive Balkan political intelligence scheme for today: (a) What makes Western views of Balkan disorder historically “special” as Westerners try to comprehend the causes of irresolvable cyclical instability and violence in the “soft underbelly of Europe?” (b) Why the Europeans continue to fail so miserably to address the Balkan crisis in their own back yard? (c) And why today’s Balkans won’t fit the tested models of crisis management familiar to Western intelligence analysts and strategical specialists? (Forthcoming in 2018)

 

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