Alexis Giannoulis
(RIEAS Associate and Independent Research Analyst)

Copyright: www.rieas.gr

Strategic decisions such as preventive and preemptive strikes are usually based on drivers, some directly others indirectly linked to the main objective. Since 2002 and the discovery of the Natanz secret nuclear facility some 200 km from Tehran (1), Israel and the West have been trying to put an end to the country’s nuclear programme which, Tehran has always claimed it is aimed at solely peaceful, i.e energy related objectives.

January 15, 2012

First and foremost it is necessary to clarify that what is at stake when addressing the “Iran Problem”. .. Read more

Anis H. Bajrektarevic
(Geopolitics of Energy Editorial Member, Chairperson for Intl. Law & Global Pol. Studies,  University of Applied Sciences IMC–Krems, Austria)

Copyright: Anis H. Bajrektarevic on line

For the disciplinary scholars of geoeconomics and for the geopolitics chessboard practitioners, the current events in (and around) the Arab countries are particularly instructive. ...  Read more

Vassilios Damiras
(Counterterrorism and Defense Analyst, USA)

Copyright: www.rieas.gr

Greece and Israel's rich and complicated histories and cultures have seen them associated with all the crucial historical developments in the eastern Mediterranean, Balkan and Middle East regions. The Jewish Zionist movement that was created in the late 19th century by Theodore Herzl had very similar characteristics to the Greek irredentist movement of the “Great Idea.” Both nations have triumphed as Diaspora. Both ethnic groups have been occupied by the Ottomans yet still managed to influence the economy of the Ottoman Empire. Both countries are Western-style democracies, allied to the United States and located within a crucial geostrategic region.

By Joseph Lerner
(Political and Intelligence Analyst)

Copyright: www.rieas.gr

The Arab Spring as a political phenomenon has given rise to various populist uprisings against the tyrannical regimes such as Egypt’s Revolution and Libya’s revolt. Few years ago, the Libyan people couldn’t even imagine capturing Tripoli and arresting two of Gadhafi’s sons. Who thought that one day Hosni Mubarak ally of the US to be put on trial in Cairo? It is true that the Arab Spring was inspired and started by the Tunisian populist uprising, but each case such as Egypt, Libya, Bahrain and Syria’s populist uprising has a different and unique nature. 

One of the most unique movements in the Middle East is the Syrian populist uprising. Syria, due to its geostrategic position, history and political culture has been always attracting various regional and international power players as a country to politically and economically invest in. The US, France, Germany, Turkey, Iran, Russia, China and other countries have been aware of the sensitivity and complexity of the issues when it comes to Syria, and the Syrian people’s aspiration for democracy and freedom. For this reason Syria has become the country where various parties such as Iran and Turkey are flexing their political and diplomatic mussels to gain leverage to influence Syria’s future.

Dr Barah Mikail
(Senior Researcher, Middle East and North Africa, FRIDE Think Tank, Spain) 

Copyright:  www.rieas.gr

As events have unfolded across the MENA region over the last six months, violence in Syria has reached unbearable degrees. Bachar al-Assad’s regime has managed to crush anti-government demonstrations despite criticism and sanctions adopted by the “international community”. The more criticism has been forthcoming, the more the Syrian government has propagated the foreign conspiracy by-line. Indeed, the regional environment is sensitive enough to have anyone refrain from reiterating the Libyan experience.

Ioannis Chapsos
(Commander, Hellenic Navy (PhD Cand), Hellenic Supreme Joint War College Instructor, Global Security specialist)

Copyright: www.rieas.gr

The new wars

After the end of the ‘Cold War’ we experienced a metamorphosis of the traditional conflicts per se. Interstate conflicts tend to eclipse and a new form of long lasting intrastate violence has emerged . The only interstate conflict waged in the last decade was the one between Russia and Georgia and it didn’t last for more than a week . Read more

Dr. Shlomo Shpiro
(Deputy chairman of the Political Studies Department at Bar-Ilan University, senior research associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, and chairman of the International Intelligence History Association (IIHA).

Copyright: http://www.biu.ac.il/Besa/

Note: BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 134, March 23, 2011

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: While Western powers have stepped in to enforce the UN Security Council's 'no fly zone' over Libya, depriving Muammar Gaddafi of his air power alone will not ensure victory for the insurgents on the ground. Covert action, conducted by intelligence operatives, can clandestinely provide the rebels with the funds, arms, communication equipment and intelligence information crucial for their success, without the need for Western forces to intervene on the ground. Such a strategy can also help unite the insurgents in order to create a unified military response to Gaddafi's army.

Μάνου Ηλιάδη
(Δημοσιογράφος)

Copyright: Κόσμο του Επενδυτή

Οι μυστικές υπηρεσίες των τριών γειτονικών κρατών φέρονται να προωθούν κοινές επιχειρήσεις δολοφονίας επιφανών Κούρδων, και μάλιστα στην καρδιά της Ευρώπης, στις Βρυξέλλες

Πληροφορίες από άκρως αξιόπιστες κουρδικές πηγές, που αναφέρονται σε συγκεκριμένη κοινή επιχείρηση των τουρκικών, ιρανικών και συριακών μυστικών υπηρεσιών εναντίον στελεχών των Κούρδων στις Βρυξέλλες, αποκαλύπτουν μία ιδιαίτερα ενδιαφέρουσα διάσταση των σχέσεων της Τουρκίας με τις χώρες αυτές, και κυρίως με το Ιράν.

Anita Rai
(Author of the Book: “Jihad and Terrorism”)

Copyright: www.rieas.gr

The people of Egypt are stepping up pressure on Hosni Mubarak, the country’s longest ruling leader to step down from the President’s post. In power for thirty years, Mubarak has ruled Egypt with an iron hand armed with a brutal security apparatus. Legitimate desire of the people to free themselves from the clutches of an authoritarian regime, however must be realised with caution. Not just the West, but the global community as a whole, cannot afford to have the continuing political chaos culminate in the Islamists coming to power in Egypt, whose stability is a must for the peace of the region and the world. Read more

Nikolas Stylianou
(RIEAS Research Associate, Security Analyst)

Copyright: www.rieas.gr
The incident on the Mavi Marmara on the 31st of May introduced a new era in Turkish – Israeli bilateral relations and many analysts and diplomats argue that this crisis between the former strategic allies has come to indicate that their political and geostrategic agenda, especially regarding the Middle East radically differs, especially after AKP, came to power in 2003. The current article seeks to address the role of Cyprus in regards to the rapid developments in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East and what strategies it should pursue in order to enhance its position in the region.

Steve Stylianoudis
(Senior Analyst – Intelligence Research)

Copyright: Steve Stylianoudis on line

A change entailing unpredictable geopolitical ramifications is taking place in Turkey!  For years, an objective of the Turkish government was the acceptance of Turkey as a full member in the European Union (EU).  It has made substantial progress, but only because Turkey secured and continues to receive the unqualified support of the US State Department.  It was able to convince the State Department leadership that Turkish inclusion in the EU and adoption of Turkey’s positions on issues in the Balkans and the Middle East would be in the best interests of the United States.  Turkey did so by retaining scores of “revolving door” consultants - the majority of whom are prominent former administration officials from both parties.

Nickolaos Mavromates
(Analyst)

Copyright: Nikolaos Mavromates on line

The Jewish minority in the Ottoman times were always the favorite millet of the Sultanate, the only nationality that did not ever betray the Porte by revolting. This may have been one of the factors that may have influenced Turkey to be one of the first states to recognize Israel’s Independence in 1948, the only Muslim nation that defied Middle East Arab sentiments and of course Tel-Aviv never forgot this gesture.

Dr. Anat Lapidot-Firilla
(Senior Research Fellow, Academic Director of the Mediterranean Unit, The Van Leer Jerusalem Institute)

Copyright: www.cceia.unic.ac.cy - Cyprus Center for European and International Affairs

Note: Dr. Anat Lapidot-Firilla first delivered this paper at the Cyprus Center for European and International Affairs at the University of Nicosia. 

Since the rise of AK Party to power, in November 2002, and the appointment of Ahmet Davutoglu to the post of senior adviser on foreign affairs, the process of devolution of the strategic alliance with Israel began. Moreover, it should be noted that the dismantling is not the result of Turkish discomfort or dissatisfaction with a specific Israeli policy but the result of a specific, new strategic outlook: which is directly linked to Davutoghlu theory of how foreign policy should be handled, adopted by the AKP regime. 

Joseph Fitsanakis
(Dr. Joseph Fitsanakis teaches politics and history at King College, USA. He is Senior Editor of intelNews.org.)

Copyright: www.rieas.gr

The vast majority of Western and Israeli defense and intelligence agencies agree that Iran’s ultimate aim is to fortify its military posture with nuclear weapons. Cross-agency --let along cross-national-- consensus on matters of nuclear intelligence is rare, but there is nothing profound about this particular agreement. Only a cursory look on a world map is sufficient to confirm --even strategically justify, some would say-- Iran’s nuclear intentions.

Thrassy N. Marketos

Copyright: www.rieas.gr

This paper examines Russia’s Central Asian policy in the context of the continued Iranian – American confrontation which affects Central Asian geopolitics and the Eurasian approach dominating Russia’s foreign policy (which presupposes Russia-Iran partnership in Central Asia). It is absolutely clear that the nature, content, and pace of Russia’s involvement in the region, as well as cooperation between the two countries, directly depend on the state and level of Iranian – American relations. Read more

Giannakopoulos Vasileios
(Hellenic Air Force Brigadier General (retired) and Former Analyst of the Hellenic National Defence General Staff )

Copyright: www.geostrategy.gr

On 20 May 2009, the Guardian Council of Iran officially announced a list of approved candidates, while rejecting a number of registered nominees. Only four candidates were approved by the Guardian Council, out of the 476 men and women who had applied to seek the Presidency of Iran in the 2009 election. 
The official results of the June 12, 2009 Iranian Presidential Election provoked the reaction of the Iranian reformists in many major cities. These reactions increased dramatically when the Musavi side accused President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for election fraud. 

Sergey Markedonov (PhD in History)
(Head of the Interethnic Relations Group at the Institute for Political and Military Analysis, Associated Professor of the Russian State University for Humanities)
Copyright: www.rieas.gr


Iran is currently a focus of attention for politicians and experts worldwide. The nuclear programme of Iran, alongside Kosovo, the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and energy security, has risen to the top of the international political agenda. The 2006 Israel–Lebanon war Israeli-HAMAS clashes (December, 2008) demonstrated the increased potential of Iran as an actor in the Middle East “big game”. Iran’s military-political success (the first defeat of Israel since its foundation) brought home to the whole world Teheran’s skills and abilities to strike its main geopolitical opponents by waging a successful “proxy war”. According to Georgiy Mirskiy, a Russian expert on the Middle East Security issues, «Iran is the only state in the world that is able to be completely happy with the situation that has arisen?”
In this connection topics such as Iran's “Caucasus strategy” have remained without the attention they deserve. At the same time Iran, like Turkey, is a long-standing participant in the Caucasian geopolitical competition. In antiquity and during the medieval period various lands that are now in the Caucasus were under the power of the Persian monarchs. In the 16th-18th centuries Turkey and Iran were continually waging war over domination in the Caucasus region. However, Iran's ouster from the South and North Caucasus was due to imperial Russia's policy. As a result of a series of Russo-Persian wars at the end of the 19th and beginning of the 20th centuries Russia established control over Southern Dagestan, Eastern Armenia, and Northern Azerbaijan. But, even after losing its former influence, Iran remained and continues to be an important participant in Caucasian political processes.  

When Donald Rumsfeld was still US Secretary of Defense, many officials and soldiers criticized his willingness to focus the US military budget and strategic decisions on low intensity conflicts and terrorism by favouring the use of Special Forces, intelligence and high technology. His departure and the arrival of former CIA director Robert Gates was to change all that and make the improvement of the situation in Iraq the top priority. It was mostly about breaking with the Rumsfeld era by providing the armed forces with more conventional means and by sending more troops on the ground for a better control of the territory, especially in Iraq. It was « The Surge » and the arrival of reinforcements, inter alia supported by US Senator John McCain, that led to the significant and current improvement of the security situation in Iraq.

Although there are still murderous attacks, the number of attacks has been decreased. While the internal difficulties related to sectarian, religious and political beliefs are far from being settled, Iraq seems on the path of greater stability. The resumption of dialogue between Iraq and Iran proved essential. The situation got worse in Afghanistan at the same time of a growing destabilization of Pakistan plagued by very serious political difficulties and the worst seems yet to come. The Taliban and their Al Qaeda allies have won several major victories: the official establishment of Sharia in the valley of Swat, greater freedom of movement on both sides of the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan and finally the offering hand of President Karzai and his western allies to «win over» the « moderates » among them. Such a scenario would have been unthinkable in 2002 when only the all-out war on terrorism was the valid strategy and that in a few months, Mullah Omar and his friends had been swept from the Afghan scene, in appearance at least.