RESEARCH AREAS

Why Early Assessments of Limited Military Operations Exhibit an elevated risk of analytical distortion.

Julio Enrique PALACIO
(Lieutenant Colonel, Joint Command of the Armed Forces, Argentina)

Copyright: @ 2026 Research Institute for European and American Studies (www.rieas.gr) Publication date: 11 January 2026

Note: The article reflects the opinion of the author and not necessarily the views of the Research Institute for European and American Studies.

Introduction

The U.S. military operation in Venezuela reported on January 3, 2026 serves as a contemporary illustrative case of a timeless problem: contradictory judgments issued within 72 hours. For some, it was a “brilliant tactical success”; for others, a “predictable strategic failure.”¹ This phenomenon is not new. Limited military operations display a recurring pattern: categorical strategic judgments issued within days are later refuted or substantially qualified.² This study examines why such assessments exhibit an elevated risk of analytical distortion and how Intelligence can mitigate the problem... Read more

Signe Marie Cold-Ravnkilde
(Senior Researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies, DIIS, specializing in Sahel security, conflict and migration governance)

Christine Nissen
(Senior analyst at Think Europe and an associate researcher at European council for foreign relations (ECFR), specializing in EU defence and security)

Jay Singh
(Recently retired senior U.S. diplomat who has served as Head of USAID missions in various countries as well as Charge d’ Affairs. He also serves as the Senior Advisor to the RIEAS in Greece)

Copyright: @ 2026 Research Institute for European and American Studies (www.rieas.gr) Publication date: 3 August 2026

Note: The article reflects the opinion of the author and not necessarily the views of the Research Institute for European and American Studies

Introduction

At NATO's summit, leaders are debating how to counter geopolitical rivals. Yet the most consequential strategic concession may already be underway. The rollback of USAID is reducing Western influence across Africa, Asia and fragile states just as China and Russia expand their diplomatic, economic and security footprints.

The transatlantic order that underpinned European security for decades can no longer be taken for granted. As Washington retreats from development and diplomacy, Europe faces a strategic choice of whether to fill the vacuum or accept a diminished role in shaping stability beyond its borders.... Read more

Theresa Lillelund
(Graduate student, MA in International Relations, Webster University Athens)

Copyright: @ 2026 Research Institute for European and American Studies (www.rieas.gr) Publication date: 13 September 2026

Note: The article reflects the opinion of the author and not necessarily the views of the Research Institute for European and American Studies.

Introduction

The global situation is complex and unpredictable, which is affecting the threat level for each country. In 2025, the Danish Resilience Agency (SAMSIK)[ In Danish: “Styrelsen for Samfundssikkerhed.”] stated that Denmark is navigating its most serious security and risk environment since the Second World War.... Read more